An Overview of Now-casting Methods

Download PDF Introduction Now-casting methods are a class of forecasting models originally used in meteorology, and that later found useful applications in economics and finance. The first paper that generalizes the use of now-casting methods in economics is Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The idea of now-casting is that high-frequency Read more…

Market Recap 01/10/2023

Download PDF US The week in US markets was marked by losses in all major indices apart from the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, up 0.06% and 0.48% respectively. The S&P closed the week down 0.74%, the Dow Jones was down 1.34%, the Russell 3000 Value and Growth were down 0.89% Read more…

Market Recap 24/09/2023

Download PDF US US equities mainly lost this past week, with their most followed index closing this week almost 3% down (S&P500). Russell 2000 led the way down with a 3.82% decline week on week, closely followed by the tech heavy tracker (Nasdaq composite) which closed 3.62% down compared to Read more…

A Primer on Central Bank Communications

Download PDF One of the biggest secular trends in central banking policy since its inception has been increased transparency through more regular and varied forms of communication. The hope is that by being transparent, market participants can price in the policy path more gradually, lowering the chances of wild bursts Read more…

Is Gold a good Monetary Policy Trade?

Download PDF Introduction The purpose of this article is to investigate whether gold, and in particular its spot returns against other currencies, display some correlation with other macroeconomic drivers, particularly with monetary policy decisions by Central banks. Gold: Anti-Cyclical Asset or simple Commodity? In the realm of financial markets and Read more…

Market Recap 17/09/2023

Download PDF USA US equities traded mostly at a loss this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing the week at -0.16% and -0.39%, respectively. The Russell 2000 also closed below the weekly open at -0.24%, while the Dow Jones closed at +0.12%. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was the big mover among Read more…

Modelling Swap Spreads

Download PDF Introduction Swap spreads, which measure the difference between the fixed rate on a swap and the yield on a Treasury bond of the same maturity, have often been negative in recent years, particularly in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. This phenomenon has puzzled market participants, Read more…

Market Recap 07/05/2023

Download PDF US The week in the US market was marked by big losses in regional banks stocks, as First Republic failed. The S&P500 lost 0.8% for the week, the Dow Jones was down 1.24% and the Russell 3000 Value was down 1.71%. While the Nasdaq and Russell 3000 Growth Read more…