Since the last time we wrote, many things have happened on the markets. The Fed has finally turned on its tapering programme in mid-December and said it would unwind its asset purchasing by another 10 billion in February. This long expected event has provoked what news broadcasters all over the Read more…
[edmc id=998][/edmc] BSIC MARKETS DIVISION MACRO VIEW US This week’s US data releases showed improvement in the economic sentiment: GDP and labour market confirmed our view on US Economy. The second estimate of third-quarter GDP was revised from 2.8% to 3.6%. However, we must point out that positive GDP growth Read more…
US This week has been really quiet for the US. Two main issues arise: the initial jobless claims surprise on the downside (actual 316K vs expected 330K), and the decline in the durable goods orders. (-2%) in October. With regard to the first data, although it is clearly good for Read more…
There seems to be a consensus in the market that the Fed will gradually start tapering in the next few months (our guesses at BSIC is in December). Therefore it is time to understand what could happen to markets and get prepared. What could happen on the equity market in Read more…
Panel 22|11|2013 US This week Bernanke surprised the markets outlining the chance of early tapering of QE (December meeting). For us this is quite surprising, as we still believe the US economy is not performing as well as it was believed this spring. Three main reasons have worsened our outlook Read more…
What game is the Fed playing? The Fed’s unconventional monetary policy so far has been a mix of Market policy (or, better, Balance Sheet policy) and Mouth policy. Indeed, great part of the job has been done “manipulating” expectations to make agents reacted to Fed stimuli the way it meant Read more…
Two main issues dominated the week, the Yellen speech in front of the senate and the BoE inflation report. Ms. Yellen’s tone was strongly dovish and we understand why. The US economy is not ready for a December tapering. Inflation is declining from 2% in July to 1.2% now and Read more…
Who is Janet Yellen, the woman everyone seems to be talking about these days? Why have we been hearing this name so often and what implications will it have on us? Well, we will presumably be hearing of Janet Yellen for quite a long time: last Wednesday President Obama nominated Read more…
Since the crisis hit, interest rates have been kept artificially to the lowest level the world has ever seen. This launched what was called the ‘hunt for yield’. As many investors ran for high-yield junk bonds, risk-averse investors who were uncomfortable with that level of risk turned to quality stocks, Read more…
When first appointed in 2006 by President Bush, Ben Bernanke probably didn’t expect his two terms as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to be the most decisive ones of the past century. First denying an housing bubble, he had to face its real burst and the most threatening crisis Read more…
On May 3, 2013, more than thirteen years since its first close above 1500, the S&P 500 closed above 1600 for the first time, at 1,614.42. Last week it closed at 1,667,47, some say by the end of the summer it may reach 1700 points. There has been a lot Read more…
This week was dominated by the US and European central bankers speeches. They both confirmed their accommodative monetary policy. However the FED just confirmed its commitment to the bond buying program until the economy would have showed sign of improvement. The ECB, on the other side, decided to take really Read more…