The goal of this project was to understand the Polymarket microstructure and the effect of different types of wallets on the price. This research utilizes public 2024 US Election data from Polymarket to analyze market microstructure and the efficacy of algorithmic trading strategies within decentralized prediction markets.
Download PDF Legacy Betting Industry: the Post-PASPA Landscape For the better part of the last three decades, sports betting in America existed in a legal paradox. The games were everywhere, but the ability to wager on them legally was restricted to a single state. PASPA – the Professional and Amateur Read more…
Download PDF Introduction/Recap: This article is intended to be a continuation of the previous “Well, CAN THEY PREDICT?” article which was focused upon developing methodology to price Kalshi weekly prediction contract probabilities of being in-the-money (specifically those functioning as a BTC digital option) using a risk-neutral framework upon stochastic processes. Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Prediction markets have long been touted as effective aggregators of information, leveraging the collective intelligence of participants to generate probability estimates for real-world events. Platforms like Kalshi have taken this concept a step further by allowing users to speculate on a broad range of outcomes, from political Read more…