“Well, CAN WE PREDICT?”: Backtesting Trading Strategies on Prediction Markets’ Cryptocurrency Contracts

Download PDF Introduction/Recap:   This article is intended to be a continuation of the previous “Well, CAN THEY PREDICT?” article which was focused upon developing methodology to price Kalshi weekly prediction contract probabilities of being in-the-money (specifically those functioning as a BTC digital option) using a risk-neutral framework upon stochastic processes. Read more…

Sports Betting Part 2: Further Exploring Cross-Bookie Arbitrage using Kelly Criterion and Odds Models

Download PDF Introduction In our previous exploration of sports betting, we examined basic market efficiency and evaluated whether straightforward strategies could uncover statistical arbitrage opportunities. Our findings showed that, while betting markets may appear exploitable at first glance, they remain highly efficient, leaving little room for profit under simplistic approaches. Read more…