Download PDF Introduction Intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth, and it is obtained by means of an objective calculation (to a certain extent), such as a DCF, where the cashflows of a company are discounted to the present in order to estimate the company’s true […]
Introduction The purpose of this article is to analyse different futures markets on cryptocurrencies and try to find justifications for excessive premia and discrepancies in prices. Firstly, we are going to present a general overview on cryptocurrencies and futures, then a short analysis of premia and finally we’ll look at […]
In the second part of the article, we saw how to spot anomalous price movements and how to profit from the divergence between futures and spot prices in the crypto market. Moreover, we showed the key indicator on which we should always be focused on. In this third part, which […]
This article is the follow up to “How to Manipulate the Bitcoin Market (1/3)”. In the second part, we want to show how the spikes in price between the end of May and the first half of June 2016 were the result of just a few investors who used huge […]
As of today (02-10-2016) there are 16,051,950 bitcoins out of 21 million that will ever be in circulation, priced at $604.05 each (that makes a total market capitalization around $9.7 billion). As a comparison, $9.7 billion is approximately equal to only 1.5% of Apple’s total market capitalization. During next weeks, […]
Bitcoin Imagine you could send your money from one part of the world to another in a matter of minutes and without paying outrageous fees to the banks. Bitcoin is an innovative way to do this. It was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 and published as open-source software. Bitcoin […]
Download PDF Over the past seven days the macroeconomic spotlight has been dominated by three themes: (1) diverging central‑bank moves, with the Fed on pause but the Bank of England embarking on its first cut of this cycle; (2) signs of a tariff‑driven movement in global trade flows, most visibly in a stronger-than‑expected Chinese […]
Download PDF Introduction/Recap: This article is intended to be a continuation of the previous “Well, CAN THEY PREDICT?” article which was focused upon developing methodology to price Kalshi weekly prediction contract probabilities of being in-the-money (specifically those functioning as a BTC digital option) using a risk-neutral framework upon stochastic processes. […]
Download PDF Introduction Prediction markets have long been touted as effective aggregators of information, leveraging the collective intelligence of participants to generate probability estimates for real-world events. Platforms like Kalshi have taken this concept a step further by allowing users to speculate on a broad range of outcomes, from political […]
Download PDF Introduction Historically, prediction markets trace their roots back to early experiments in political and economic forecasting, such as the Iowa Electronic Markets in the late 1980’s, allowing participants for the first time to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of specific events. Since then, these markets have evolved […]
Download PDF USA All major indexes declined over the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average being the best of the bad, retracting on previous week’s gains as uncertainty over incoming policies grew, leading to disparities in sector returns. The Russell 2000 fell by the most (-3.99%) following its rally […]
Download PDF Introduction After the great years of 2020 and 2021, the cryptocurrency market has been recently going through what many industry analysts believe to be a “crypto winter”, with Bitcoin prices reaching a low of $15,000 in December 2022, falling from almost $60,000 in November 2021. The fall from […]
Download PDF Introduction We have seen some of the unique trading instruments introduced by the crypto space in our last article, namely perpetual futures and inverse futures and options. Building on our knowledge from another prior article where we introduced cryptocurrencies, basic blockchain infrastructure, as well as some decentralized finance […]
Download PDF In the past few years, cryptocurrencies have made the headlines on many different occasions and many think that they are here to stay, for better or worse. Regardless of their social impact, we believe that they have introduced interesting contrasts to traditional finance in their market microstructures. In […]
Download PDF Introduction On November 11th, crypto trading startup FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the US just three days after admitting to being unable to meet $5bn in customer withdrawals. Sam Bankman-Fried, a 30-year-old trader and founder of the crypto exchange, resorted to filing in a Delaware federal court […]