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MARKET RECAP BRIEF 10|05|14
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Shadow Banking in China: wounds are yet to come
The Emerging Markets sell-off of late January highlighted the importance of the Chinese economy in the global markets and the instability of its financial sector. China has pulled global growth in the last decade, attracting investments, exporting goods all over the world and financing businesses and governments, especially the US. Read more…
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MARKET RECAP 29|03|14
[edmc id=1641][/edmc] US This week has been full of economic data. The most relevant are the following: – Final GDP growth for 4th 2013 quarter q/q is 2,6%, still mainly driven by inventories. – Flash manufacturing PMI is at 55.5, a bit lower than expectations. However, this suggests a manufacturing Read more…
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MARKET RECAP 22|03|14
[edmc id=1589] [/edmc] US Another volatile week for the markets and for the U.S. ended on Friday amid concerns over Russia. As was expected, Crimea voted for annexation to Russia on Sunday 16th and this led to further sanctions to a group of Russian wealthy individuals that rattled Russia’s economy Read more…
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BSIC Market Recap 15|03|14
[edmc id=1554][/edmc] U.S. At the end of a week dominated primarily by uncertainty, markets mostly closed in negative territory. Signs of the week that’s past can be clearly seen in the VIX index which has been on a constant hike path since the beginning of 2014. The VIX is seen Read more…
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BSIC Market Recap 01|03|14
[edmc id=1406][/edmc] US The economy grew at a slower pace than it was first estimated. Indeed, the fourth quarter GDP growth estimate was revised down to 2.4%, in contrast with the initial estimation of 3.2%. This revision was attributed to lower consumer spending growth. As this data adds to a Read more…
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BSIC Market Recap 08|12|13
[edmc id=998][/edmc] BSIC MARKETS DIVISION MACRO VIEW US This week’s US data releases showed improvement in the economic sentiment: GDP and labour market confirmed our view on US Economy. The second estimate of third-quarter GDP was revised from 2.8% to 3.6%. However, we must point out that positive GDP growth Read more…
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BSIC Market Recap 30|11|13
US This week has been really quiet for the US. Two main issues arise: the initial jobless claims surprise on the downside (actual 316K vs expected 330K), and the decline in the durable goods orders. (-2%) in October. With regard to the first data, although it is clearly good for Read more…
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Prepare for Tapering
There seems to be a consensus in the market that the Fed will gradually start tapering in the next few months (our guesses at BSIC is in December). Therefore it is time to understand what could happen to markets and get prepared. What could happen on the equity market in Read more…
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BSIC Market Recap 23|11|13
Panel 22|11|2013 US This week Bernanke surprised the markets outlining the chance of early tapering of QE (December meeting). For us this is quite surprising, as we still believe the US economy is not performing as well as it was believed this spring. Three main reasons have worsened our outlook Read more…
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BSIC Markets Division Macro View: 16|11|13
Two main issues dominated the week, the Yellen speech in front of the senate and the BoE inflation report. Ms. Yellen’s tone was strongly dovish and we understand why. The US economy is not ready for a December tapering. Inflation is declining from 2% in July to 1.2% now and Read more…
Currencies Markets Old Articles
USD-INR Carry Trade
The main idea of the trade is to buy IND and sell USD, implementing what in jargon is called a carry trade. In the chart above we can see the 3-month trend of this risky pair, which has actually been under the spotlight in the past couple of months since Read more…
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‘Over the summer’ trade on commodities
Not so long ago, prices of oil, steel and gold (just to name a few) were thought to continue floating upwards forever as China entered its third decade of growing with breakneck speed. However, commodity prices have been deteriorating since 2008-2009, in line with sluggish growth and fall in demand Read more…
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Update on our position on the EUR/USD: long USD/KRW
After three days we decided to close our position on the EURUSD as our trade did not play out. In the end we were almost flat so we did not lose money. However we keep our bullish view on the USD and we decided to change the pair and to Read more…
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Trade Idea: Short EUR/USD
This week was dominated by the US and European central bankers speeches. They both confirmed their accommodative monetary policy. However the FED just confirmed its commitment to the bond buying program until the economy would have showed sign of improvement. The ECB, on the other side, decided to take really Read more…