Download PDF Introduction/Recap: This article is intended to be a continuation of the previous “Well, CAN THEY PREDICT?” article which was focused upon developing methodology to price Kalshi weekly prediction contract probabilities of being in-the-money (specifically those functioning as a BTC digital option) using a risk-neutral framework upon stochastic processes. Read more…
Download PDF Introduction After the great years of 2020 and 2021, the cryptocurrency market has been recently going through what many industry analysts believe to be a “crypto winter”, with Bitcoin prices reaching a low of $15,000 in December 2022, falling from almost $60,000 in November 2021. The fall from Read more…
Download PDF In the past few years, cryptocurrencies have made the headlines on many different occasions and many think that they are here to stay, for better or worse. Regardless of their social impact, we believe that they have introduced interesting contrasts to traditional finance in their market microstructures. In Read more…
Download PDF Introduction On November 11th, crypto trading startup FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in the US just three days after admitting to being unable to meet $5bn in customer withdrawals. Sam Bankman-Fried, a 30-year-old trader and founder of the crypto exchange, resorted to filing in a Delaware federal court Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Bolt Financial Inc., a leading payments-focused technology company, announced the acquisition of the crypto-services startup Wyre in a cash and stock deal. Announced on April 7th, 2022, the deal is expected to close later in 2022. It is valued at around $1.5 billion, and, according to research Read more…
Download PDF When lockdowns and travel restrictions started to threaten companies’ survival in March last year, all eyes turned to cash. What was before a mundane Treasury responsibility became a hot topic for discussion amongst C-suite executives. Mentions of cash, liquidity, and lines of credit multiplied in earnings calls. Cash Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth, and it is obtained by means of an objective calculation (to a certain extent), such as a DCF, where the cashflows of a company are discounted to the present in order to estimate the company’s true Read more…
Introduction The purpose of this article is to analyse different futures markets on cryptocurrencies and try to find justifications for excessive premia and discrepancies in prices. Firstly, we are going to present a general overview on cryptocurrencies and futures, then a short analysis of premia and finally we’ll look at Read more…
In the second part of the article, we saw how to spot anomalous price movements and how to profit from the divergence between futures and spot prices in the crypto market. Moreover, we showed the key indicator on which we should always be focused on. In this third part, which Read more…
This article is the follow up to “How to Manipulate the Bitcoin Market (1/3)”. In the second part, we want to show how the spikes in price between the end of May and the first half of June 2016 were the result of just a few investors who used huge Read more…
As of today (02-10-2016) there are 16,051,950 bitcoins out of 21 million that will ever be in circulation, priced at $604.05 each (that makes a total market capitalization around $9.7 billion). As a comparison, $9.7 billion is approximately equal to only 1.5% of Apple’s total market capitalization. During next weeks, Read more…