## Can the Implied Volatility Surface predict Returns of shorting Puts?

We gave a brief introduction to put writing strategies already earlier this semester. We since thought about possible modifications of such strategies and their effects on return characteristics and return predictability. The positive returns of put writing strategies can be motivated from risk premia, as we show in the first Read more…

## Put-writing Strategies as an Alternative to Low-Volatility Equity Investments

Equity put-option writing strategies represent an alternative to attain equity-like returns with less volatility. In fact, by writing a put-option the seller collects the option premium and gains exposure to value changes in the underlying equity. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) publishes already since 2007 daily return data for Read more…

## Your Guide to the Land of Higher Order Greeks

“Option Greeks” is the common name for the sensitivities in price of options or, in general, of derivatives and portfolios of derivatives, with respect to different factors, such as spot price of the underlying, implied volatility, risk-free interest rate, etc. Each Greek represents the ratio between the change in price Read more…

## The Black-Scholes Model in VBA

The aim of this article is to walk the reader through the implementation of the Black-Scholes model for option pricing in VBA. Firstly, we’ll recap the theoretical framework. Secondly, we’ll provide the code to put the theory into practice and show some basic (but hopefully relevant) applications. The Theory – Read more…

## Volatility Play on the Hidden Gold-Yuan Peg

Reserve Currencies A reserve currency is defined as a currency held by government for international payment purposes. The most important usages are: Repay back international debt (generally issued in reserve currencies) Defend the domestic currency against depreciation Improve the government credit rating Reserve currencies are many. The IMF chooses the Read more…

## Hennes & Mauritz AB: A Bear in the Swedish Woods

Introduction Firstly, we briefly present H&M business. Secondly, we provide a report of recently announced Q1 2017 results. Thirdly, we perform a DCF and multiples valuation to find a target price for H&M, in line with recently announced results. Finally, we will explore a strategy to profit from our analysis. Read more…

Not long ago, two major oil-producing countries (Russia and Saudi Arabia) reached an agreement, according to which the stake of output of those countries was capped at January-2016 levels. The move was very unexpected, since no one had bet that the deal would be reached, thus oil prices went through Read more…

## Riding the volatility surface

One of the tools traders have found to cope with the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes models has been to allow for non-flat volatilities, which means that the implied volatility of an option does not depend merely on the historical volatility in the underlying, but also on the strike Read more…

## Let it be (volatile)

“Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline.” Philip Roth Introduction As options and other products whose price depends on volatility have become widespread, studying its behaviour is now a key Read more…

## UK housing bubble: time to cool down

The sharp increase in UK property prices-predominantly but not limited to the London area- over the last year has led many to believe such a trend has become unsustainable. According to Nationwide Building Society, Real estate prices registered an 18% annual change in London since 2013, while the average UK Read more…

## Our views on Twitter Share Price

In our Special Report (https://bsic.it/2013/10/19/bsic-special-report-twitter-ipo/), we analyzed Twitter’s characteristics, comparables and ratios. We valued Twitter shares at approximately 25$, really close to the final offering price (26$). After the IPO, Twitter’s share price dramatically soared to 45\$, an unbelievable 72% surge: Analysts seem to agree with our view, and Mr. Read more…