Download PDF Introduction Inflation made a return post pandemic and has been affecting all market participators for 18 months now. In this article, we will dive into the persistence of inflation in the UK specifically and the struggles the UK has had to face trying to cool this red-hot inflation Read more…
Download PDF Introduction On the 25th of September Italian citizens are going to vote for their representatives in the parliament. Based on the current macroeconomic and political scenario, we analyze the effects that the elections’ results might have on the markets and propose a trade idea based on the BTP-Bund Read more…
Download PDF Introduction One of the most enticing readings in finance starts with To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. However, the investment reasoning of Warren Buffett is not only relevant in its current edition but also in the previous ones in which he has formed a long-lasting investment principle Read more…
The Czech koruna, the currency of an economically relatively small country, recently has gained much attention by an increasing number of speculators. They have been positioning themselves to benefit from a possible appreciation of the Czech currency. For three years, the Czech National Bank (CNB) has kept the koruna above Read more…
Brazil is coming from a three-year recessionary period, with an unemployment rate still above 12%. Despite this, the Bovespa index (IBOV), which is the top equity index for the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange and has 59 components, is up almost 10% since January 1st 2017 and up 70% since January Read more…
Not long ago, two major oil-producing countries (Russia and Saudi Arabia) reached an agreement, according to which the stake of output of those countries was capped at January-2016 levels. The move was very unexpected, since no one had bet that the deal would be reached, thus oil prices went through Read more…
Italy represents the third largest market for energy service in Europe. A brief background catch up of the Italian market should be given: Italy’s main energy supplier is ENEL S.p.A, holding a 45% market share; that is to say, the remaining side of the supply is left for all the Read more…
The first point is that the Greek equity index level is very stretched: RSI is now over 70 and price levels already reached the upper Bollinger band. Although this would already be enough to short the index, a closer look at historical data corroborates this feeling. The true driver seems Read more…
When first appointed in 2006 by President Bush, Ben Bernanke probably didn’t expect his two terms as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to be the most decisive ones of the past century. First denying an housing bubble, he had to face its real burst and the most threatening crisis Read more…
On March 15th the merger was approved by the boards of the two companies, based on an exchange ratio of 1 newly issued ordinary share in Atlantia for 9 ordinary shares in Gemina. Atlantia shares seemed to be quite overvalued (8,9x the adjusted EBITDA; 7,5x for Gemina), but since March Read more…
Given the turbulence in the implied volatility observed in the aftermath of Apple’s Q1 results, we adopt a sophisticated quantitative model to better understand its dynamics. What we have observed so far in the option market is a large decrease in the 1-month implied volatility, and a sustained level of Read more…
The trade idea that we recommended on Abbott is still sitting on a near-to-zero P&L because the stock has realized less volatility than we expected. While given the protective nature of the trade keeping the position open until option expiration would not lead to much risk, we still recommend to Read more…
We believe that in case of a strong distress the Nikkei index can suffer the most. Why not European equities? We believe that European equities have already suffered from the recent turmoil while the Japanese index has been heavily unaffected and has recently rallied dramatically, completely diverging from fundamentals whose Read more…
Trade idea: take advantage of the low-volatility environment with a butterfly strategy After breaking several all-time highs the US indices are now poised to move higher with less and less volatility. Good news coming from the job market and retail sales is welcome with a sudden decrease in implied volatility Read more…