Download PDF USA March’s initial market regime is dominated by a sudden and aggressive return of geopolitical risk premiums and supply-side energy shocks. The American equity markets faced a period of pronounced defensive positioning this week, as the optimism that defined the early weeks of the year has been tempered Read more…
Download PDF Macro overview Can the world’s most privileged issuer face liquidity stress? The U.S. Treasury is considered the most stable market in the world, anchoring global pricing and liquidity conditions. However, 2026 poses an unprecedented challenge for the U.S. Treasury Department. A sizable maturity wall of $9.6tn, accounting for Read more…
Download PDF Executive Summary On February 28th and in the subsequent days the first wave of headlines were released: “Israel and the U.S. Strike Hundreds of Targets: Nuclear Sites and Missile Launchers Hit in the First Wave” – House of Commons Library. “IRGC Launches ‘Operation True Promise 4’: Hundreds of Read more…
Download PDF Technical analysis is often regarded with skepticism in academic finance. It is frequently associated with delusional day traders who attempt to extract signals from price charts, relying on patterns they believe can be visually identified in candlestick formations. Over time, a vast number of technical indicators have been Read more…
Download PDF Introduction One of the biggest concerns regarding participants in the market is volatility. Through the years there have been different ways to model volatility in the market, starting with Black-Scholes that assumes constant volatility. Multiple major models have been developed at the scope of modelling volatility as a Read more…
Download PDF USA US capital markets opened the week lower due to tariff uncertainty. The Supreme Court on Friday 20th ruled Trump’s use of International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) to enforce tariffs as illegal. The ruling overall appeared to be relatively priced in by the markets as Vix still Read more…
Download PDF USA Following Monday’s bank holiday, U.S. equities posted solid gains through the remainder of the week. The S&P 500 advanced 1.06%, while the NASDAQ Composite outperformed with a 1.37% increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more modestly by 0.30%. The Russell 3000 Growth (+1.14%) outperformed the Russell Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Commodity-exporting currencies are structurally linked to the prices of their primary exports through the terms-of-trade channel. While this relationship holds in the long run, short-term dislocations frequently emerge due to monetary policy shifts, capital flows, and risk sentiment. This article develops a systematic cross-asset mean-reversion strategy that Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Japan’s general election on 8 February 2026 was the clearest political signal yet that the country is moving into a different macro regime from the one that defined the past two decades. Japan PM Takaichi achieved a historic victory as the LDP secured a two-thirds super majority Read more…
Download PDF Introduction In our monetary system, money markets play a crucial role in providing liquidity for financial players and are the fundamental basis of financial markets for all systemically important players. While other markets of our financial system are both well explored and documented, the money markets have stayed Read more…
Download PDF Introduction One of the most discussed topics in Q1 of 2026 is probably the current commodity “Supercycle”. Having become an extremely covered theme thanks to the stellar performance of precious metals (namely Gold and Silver), there seems to be a consensus among investment professionals on the fact that Read more…
Download PDF USA Markets cooled down this week, due to important factors starting from AI concerns. Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft collectively expect to spend around $650 billion to compete in the race, however investors start to be worried about this ambitious capex spending. We see a fall in major Read more…
Download PDF USA It’s been a short week on Wall Street because of Thanksgiving Day, but enough to allow stock markets to close the recent “misstep” and return to near all-time highs. If just a few days ago hopes for a December rate cut seemed to be crumbling under the Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Venezuela is going through one of the worst political and economic crises in the world. The currency is crashing again, inflation is returning to triple digits, and the president is thought to be the head of a narco-trafficking cartel. Moreover, the United States is increasing sanctions and Read more…
Download PDF Recently, long-time investor and market sceptic Michael Burry deregistered his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, effectively stepping away from managing outside capital while remaining active in markets. Almost simultaneously, he re-emerged publicly with a series of posts and a Substack focused on what he characterizes as an AI-driven Read more…