What happens to a large, advanced economy when it enters a full-scale military conflict? In 2022, Russia turned that theoretical question into a live case study of how a modern nation with vast natural resources and a demographic decline can sustain war.
Every month, Norges Bank tells the market exactly how much foreign currency it will buy or sell on behalf of the Norwegian government over the following month.
Download PDF Introduction Lead-lag relationships describe a simple claim: asset X may embed information about asset Y at two different points in time. If this delay is systematic and measurable than a model can exploit such a structure to produce forecasts and ultimately trading signals. The challenge is that the Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Commodity-exporting currencies are structurally linked to the prices of their primary exports through the terms-of-trade channel. While this relationship holds in the long run, short-term dislocations frequently emerge due to monetary policy shifts, capital flows, and risk sentiment. This article develops a systematic cross-asset mean-reversion strategy that Read more…
Download PDF Introduction (to Exchange Rate Models) Exchange Rate Models are widely used by entities ranging from central banks to international financial institutions to assess exchange rate misalignments. Strong and persistent departures from equilibrium levels are thought to have a substantial bearing on growth prospects, price dynamics, or even financial Read more…
Download PDF Introduction One of the main drivers of foreign exchange rates is the change in current and expected interest rates, influenced by central banks’ forward guidance and economic releases. In this article, we explore a paper by Nicolas Georges (2014) and implement a systematic FX strategy on G10 currencies, Read more…
Download PDF US The week in the US markets was marked by choppy trading, with most indices being down during the week but recuperating their losses during the Friday rally. The S&P ended its longest weekly losing streak of the year by closing at +0.48%, the Nasdaq and the Russell Read more…
Download PDF US The week in US markets was marked by losses in all major indices apart from the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, up 0.06% and 0.48% respectively. The S&P closed the week down 0.74%, the Dow Jones was down 1.34%, the Russell 3000 Value and Growth were down 0.89% Read more…
Download PDF US The week in the US market was marked by big losses in regional banks stocks, as First Republic failed. The S&P500 lost 0.8% for the week, the Dow Jones was down 1.24% and the Russell 3000 Value was down 1.71%. While the Nasdaq and Russell 3000 Growth Read more…
Download PDF US The US stock market closed the month of April with the S&P posting monthly gains for the second month in a row, adding 0.87% for the week and 1.5% for the month. All US indexes closed the week in the green, with the only exception of the Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Recently, the governments of Argentina and Brazil announced that they are considering the launch of a common currency and are aiming for stronger monetary and economic integration in South America. Furthermore, some of the biggest events in Europe in the last decade included the Euro Crisis and the Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Correlation is a pervasive concept in financial markets. It is studied by investors looking for the most reliable way to hedge their exposure while financial products that offer a directional correlation exposure also became substantially more liquid in recent years. Moreover, the substantial mispricing of correlation risk Read more…
Download PDF Introduction The current macroeconomic landscape is shaped by high inflation, increasing interest rates, and growing risk aversion. The diverging realities nations are facing due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the ensuing energy crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the looming global recession, and more, are putting policymakers’ decisions in the limelight. Read more…
Download PDF A persisting trend DISCLAIMER: The EURUSD pair is an exception to general FX notation. We comply with the quoting convention adopted in the industry: when the Dollar strengthens against the Euro, EURUSD moves lower, and vice versa. For charting purposes, however, we use the USDEUR time series. The Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Recent data on the USD/JPY pair showed a significant strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese currency, reaching an all-time high since 2016, marking almost a 5% decline YTD. This piece of news, however, is only the most recent episode of a significant weakening streak in Read more…