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Commodities Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

PUT OPTIONS ON OIL: PLACE YOUR BET!

The recent OPEC’s meeting amplified the downward trend in Oil price as the counsel decided not to cut Oil supply. The cartel decided – tough not unanimously – to leave the current OPEC supply target at 30 million barrels per day. The target was actually not respected for the last Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years6 December 2014 ago
Currencies Equity Indices Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles

MARKET RECAP 29/11/2014

US The week just past us was one of slight gains in US equity markets, with most volume on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The week opened with a soft print of the US services PMI, then trading became jittery for the S&P 500 as Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years30 November 2014 ago
Fixed Income Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

ECB: Time is running out

Inflation is down – again – to 0.3%, far away from the target of the ECB. Source: TradingEconomics, Eurostat Inflation Expectations are also down. The expected inflation in 5 years dipped last months below the threshold of 2%. This is a major issue for ECB: given its mandate to maintain Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years30 November 2014 ago
Commodities Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

The Opec meeting: days of market turm-Oil

Several investors have kept an eye open on oil this week putting all their hopes in the long-awaited OPEC meeting held on Thursday. Opening this week at $80.50 per barrel, the decisions of the OPEC meeting provoked an intraday drop of 6.65 percentage points in Brent crude prices on Thursday, Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years29 November 2014 ago
Equity Indices Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

Put/call ratio as a guide to market sentiment: the S&P 500 case

Market volatility has increased recently, and also the endless linear trend of the S&P 500 has been marginally affected. Quoting some numbers, the VIX index moved to over 26 in mid-October from a minimum of 10 reached this summer. Volatility is a sign of market nervousness; besides being common during Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years23 November 2014 ago
Currencies Equity Indices Fixed Income Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

MARKET RECAP 22/11/2014

US This week we have seen almost only positive data about US economy, which explained dollar strength with respect to all major currencies (EUR, GBP and YEN). Gains were relatively small against Euro and Pound. The substantial advance with respect to the Yen was mainly due to Yen’s weakness during Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years22 November 2014 ago
Commodities Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

OIL BEARS: TIME OVER OR JUST SETTLING IN?

I. OPEC and price trends Oil prices have been declining since last summer on concerns about production outpacing demand: the Brent slid by almost 30% from $115 in mid-June to the recent low of $76. Will prices carry on falling? Or have we hit the bottom? Next Thursday’s OPEC meeting will Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years22 November 2014 ago
Corporate Finance Currencies Equity Indices Long Term Investment Markets Old Articles

Hong Kong – Shanghai Connect: A bridge to nowhere?

What is the Hu-Gang Tong? On November 17, China took another leap in opening its markets to foreign investors with the establishment of the Hong Kong – Shanghai Stock Connect program. The so-called “Hu-Gang Tong” program will for the first time ever enable mainland residents to trade shares in Hong Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years22 November 2014 ago
Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles

The UK Macro Fundamentals: The devil hides in the details?

The latest weeks have been full of news for the UK economy. Some of the news, like the dovish stance of the Bank of England, were on average expected by the financial markets, whereas others, such as the latest inflation figure of 1.2% for September, were not expected. Actually, the Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years15 November 2014 ago
Currencies Equity Indices Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles

MARKET RECAP 15/11/2014

US US equities continued to trade sideways in the last week due to the lack of news catalysts. The only major pieces of news out were the number of initial and continuing jobless claims diffused on Thursday and the retail sales figures released on Friday. The anticipation of the former Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years15 November 2014 ago
Commodities Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

Can silver rise when gold falls? This is the question

On normal market days, the (positive) correlation between gold and silver is quite high. Looking at the chart below, it looks like silver gives chase to the movements in gold and follows them quite closely. One thing we can observe though is that downside changes in gold reflect more heavily Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years15 November 2014 ago
Currencies Equity Indices Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles

MARKET RECAP 08/11/2014

US It has been a busy week for US markets, filled with plenty of data and the outcome of the midterms on November 4th. The result of these was a Republican takeover of the Senate, and in all the expression of dissatisfaction or anger at Mr Obama’s performance. The S&P Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years8 November 2014 ago
Currencies Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles

ECB’s stress-test : Who are they kidding ?

There’s a famous saying among financiers : either stress tests are done correctly and banks fail miserably, either they are poorly done in order to make them a success. It is very likely we are in the second situation. Victor Constancio, vice-president of the ECB, declared that not only the Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years8 November 2014 ago
Commodities Markets Old Articles Trade Ideas

Oil and oil producers: Exxon Mobile

Oil has been completely crushed after peaking this summer: much has changed since our last article earlier this year (https://bsic.it/oil-quo-vadis/). Weakness in the price of crude was triggered by fear of a global slowdown: China growing at its lowest rate since 2009 (only 7.3%), together with cuts in economic forecast Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years8 November 2014 ago
Currencies Equity Indices Macroeconomic Views Markets Old Articles

MARKET RECAP 01/11/2014

US After turmoil in the recent weeks US equities are back to all-time highs. Very solid data on consumer confidence and a Q3 GDP growth rate print of 3.5%, above a lower forecast of 3%, propelled the S&P 500 to 2018.05. Not even the completion of tapering on Wednesday stopped Read more…

By BSIC, 11 years1 November 2014 ago

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