Not really a Black Friday for the US stock market. All the three major indexes continued their rally closing at historical highs and with similar gains. The S&P 500 closed at 2,213.25, up 1.4% from last week, the Dow Jones closed at 19,152.14, up 1.5% while the Nasdaq closed at 5,398.92, gaining 1.5%. The VIX confirmed the decline of past week closing at 12.34. Investors seem increasingly persuaded on the reflationary effects of Trump’s economic policy. As a result, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is now set at 2.395%, the highest since July 2015, but only slightly higher than last week, when it closed at 2.35%.
Some positive news encouraged the rally of this week. Existing homes sales reached a nine-year record, while the PMI for November was announced at 53.9, higher than expected. This means that the American economic growth is gaining strength even before any additional fiscal stimulus, and the market acted accordingly.
Next week, US Q3 preliminary GDP will be released on Tuesday, while the November employment report is expected for Friday.
European stocks ended higher Friday, getting a boost from health-care shares. In fact, The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% on Friday to end at 342.45. Health-care shares put in the strongest performance while the financial and oil and gas were the two sectors that finished lower. The Stoxx 600 closed up the week by 0.9%. It’s been up for three straight weeks, the longest run since a three-week string of advances in July.
In the fixed-income market, the spread between the French 10Y note and its German counterpart is on its widest level since early 2014 as investors have been selling French debt due to the growing concerns that the far-right National Front Party will win the presidential race in 2017. The yield on 10Y German Bund is 0.24%.
The US Dollar has slightly appreciated against the Euro, strengthening by 0.4% during the week.
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was published and it came in at 53.7, above expectations of 53.3.
Next week, German CPI (YoY) will be published and the expected level is 0.8%. In addition, German Unemployment rate will be announced on Wednesday, the current rate is 6%.
The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% on Friday to end at 6,840.75. Trading volume was lighter than usual on Thursday, due to U.S. equity markets which were closed for Thanksgiving. The FTSE 100 rose 1% during the week which represents the third straight weekly advance for the blue-chip benchmark. Mining shares rose earlier on Friday as the Dollar pulled back from the highest level in nearly 14 years (Dollar strength can hurt dollar-denominated metals prices and related stocks). However, most of those shares eventually dropped. Glencore dropped 1.8%, Anglo American share price decreased by 1.5% and Fresnillo moved down by 0.9%.
The GPBUSD did not change much this week with US Dollar appreciating by 0.14%.
UK GDP growth (YoY) was published and it came in at the same level as the last reading (2.3%).
Rest of the World
In Japan, despite positive economic growth data announced last week, inflation is persistently negative. The (core) consumer price index fell 0.4% in October from a year earlier. Despite this bad news, the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.3% this week, continuing last week rally.
After turbulent weeks, finally almost all the emerging markets regained. As a matter of fact, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 1.3% on weekly basis.
The Turkish lira dropped 2.3%, forcing the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate to 8% on Thursday, despite the strong opposition of president Erdogan.
In anticipation of a deal to cut oil production at the next OPEC meeting, West Texas Intermediate rose to 47.50, with a weekly gain of 4.85%.
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