Download PDF Introduction Headlines over the last few months have been constantly showing investors and economists discussing the various “landing” narratives for the US economy. With many arguing for a soft-landing scenario, while others remained more skeptical. At its core, this debate revolves around a critical question: “What are the Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Now-casting methods are a class of forecasting models originally used in meteorology, and that later found useful applications in economics and finance. The first paper that generalizes the use of now-casting methods in economics is Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The idea of now-casting is that high-frequency Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Correlation is a pervasive concept in financial markets. It is studied by investors looking for the most reliable way to hedge their exposure while financial products that offer a directional correlation exposure also became substantially more liquid in recent years. Moreover, the substantial mispricing of correlation risk Read more…
Download PDF Introduction Economics and the world economy are peculiar for being so unpredictable. The constant involvement of human beings leads them far from being an exact science. Correspondingly, financial markets are even more uncertain, constantly driven by human behaviour. For this reason, the idea that one very simple predictor Read more…
Download PDF Introduction We are now over a year and a half into the Covid pandemic. Disruptive as this exogenous shock has been, markets have quickly recovered, and proceeded to reach one new record after the other. More interestingly, several information technology stocks have stood the challenge without a bruise. Read more…
Download PDF Introduction This article will analyze the significance of the systemic risk in the current economic environment, delving into the Evergrande crisis and its impact on the Chinese economy and investigating the potential loopholes from the private credit sector. Finally, we will present some econometric methods applied towards systemic Read more…
Download as PDF Introduction Over the past few years, volatility in the foreign exchange markets has entered a marked downward trend, which ultimately culminated with the signing of the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. This descending movement has characterised both Developed and Emerging Markets currency pairs and Read more…
Introduction on TIPS and Gold as inflation hedge Generally, an assets is considered t o be an “inflation hedge” if either its purchasing power is maintained over the long run or its nominal returns closely track realized inflation over shorter horizons. Gold and TIPS fall into this category and are Read more…
Japanese Yen touched a 17-month high of Y107.61 versus the US dollar this Monday. The safe haven currency has rallied more than 10 percent after Bank of Japan’s surprising negative interest rate decision on banks’ excess reserves in late January. Japanese government also sold 10-year bonds with a yield below Read more…