Download as PDF Introduction The expected excess market return, or equity risk premium, is an unobservable element crucial in many financial applications ranging from corporate finance to asset pricing. Over the years, many researchers have studied the expected market return by tackling the estimation from different perspectives leading Welch, Goyal Read more…
Download as PDF The purpose of this special report is to introduce the emerging class of rough volatility models. Rough volatility is a relatively new concept originating from the empirical observation that log-volatility essentially behaves as a fractional Brownian motion at any reasonable timescale. While rough volatility is found to Read more…
Download as PDF Introduction Back in December we published an Article called “Democratic Primaries: A markets perspective” in which we provided an overview of the most significant Democratic candidates, namely Berny Sanders and Elizabeth Warren from a more liberal, left-wing side and Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg from a more Read more…
Equity put-option writing strategies represent an alternative to attain equity-like returns with less volatility. In fact, by writing a put-option the seller collects the option premium and gains exposure to value changes in the underlying equity. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) publishes already since 2007 daily return data for Read more…
Introduction 2018 was a somehow controversial year in IPO terms, with Q1, Q2 and Q3 building a strong momentum for companies to go public, and Q4 eroding the optimism recorded in the preceding timeframe. Unfortunately, 2019 has opened with the same negative outlook, with scheduled IPOs all throughout the world Read more…
Reserve Currencies A reserve currency is defined as a currency held by government for international payment purposes. The most important usages are: Repay back international debt (generally issued in reserve currencies) Defend the domestic currency against depreciation Improve the government credit rating Reserve currencies are many. The IMF chooses the Read more…
Differences between historical realized volatility and option implied volatility has for long been known as a potential indicator for volatility mispricing. To our knowledge, the first well-known academic study on the topic was conducted by Goyal and Saretto in 2009 and published as the paper ‘Cross-section of Option Returns and Read more…
Introduction Volatility is a key feature of financial markets. It is commonly used as a measure for risk and is a common an indicator of the investors’ fear and concern about the future. While higher volatility means bigger profits and losses in a directional strategy (one which bets on a Read more…
The concept of risk parity is not well-known among market participants. However, its resiliency to different market environment makes it a very interesting capital allocation strategy. It was first theorized in the sixties by Ray Dalio – founder of Bridgewater Associates – when he tried to find an answer to Read more…
Brazil is coming from a three-year recessionary period, with an unemployment rate still above 12%. Despite this, the Bovespa index (IBOV), which is the top equity index for the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange and has 59 components, is up almost 10% since January 1st 2017 and up 70% since January Read more…
United States After reaching its weekly high at 2075, following good news from Facebook earnings, the S&P 500 fell to a low of 2033 and finished at a mid 2053 the end of earnings’ season. The Fed Once again proved to be Dovish and incapable of raising rates which drove Read more…
Oil has long been one of the main drivers of the worldwide economy and for this reason it is closely watched by all investors and traders. The central role of what, back in the days, was called the “Black gold” is given by its high cross asset correlation. It has Read more…
[edmc id= 3872]Download here the Market brief[/edmc] USA Earnings season is over and in the tech sector we observed important market reactions: the most notable one was AAPL 10% depreciation caused by its disappointing results. The hedge fund manager Karl Icahn expressed a bearish view on US stocks for the Read more…
[edmc id= 3846]Download here the Weekly Market Brief[/edmc] United States Microsoft and Alphabet weighed heavily on the major US stock indices Friday when the two stocks fell 7.3% and 5.1% respectively following disappointing earnings reports published late Thursday. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 broke 2,100 for the first time since December, Read more…
[edmc id= 3619]Download here the Weekly Market Brief[/edmc] United States Market sentiment improved this week, with major US indexes pushing higher on Super Tuesday: S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged 2.4% and 2.9% respectively, and election excitement increased risk-on appetite. S&P 500 finished at $1,999, up 2.7% on the week. Vix volalitily Read more…