2023 review cover

2023: a Year in Review

Download PDF Introduction In 2023, the global economy has exceeded expectations, with projected global GDP growth set to beat consensus forecasts from a year ago. Core inflation has seen a significant drop, plummeting from 6% in 2022 to 3% across economies recovering from the post-COVID price surges. Notably, the US Read more…

An Overview of Now-casting Methods

Download PDF Introduction Now-casting methods are a class of forecasting models originally used in meteorology, and that later found useful applications in economics and finance. The first paper that generalizes the use of now-casting methods in economics is Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The idea of now-casting is that high-frequency Read more…

Modelling Swap Spreads

Download PDF Introduction Swap spreads, which measure the difference between the fixed rate on a swap and the yield on a Treasury bond of the same maturity, have often been negative in recent years, particularly in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. This phenomenon has puzzled market participants, Read more…

Our view on EURUSD

Download PDF A persisting trend DISCLAIMER: The EURUSD pair is an exception to general FX notation. We comply with the quoting convention adopted in the industry: when the Dollar strengthens against the Euro, EURUSD moves lower, and vice versa. For charting purposes, however, we use the USDEUR time series. The Read more…

Trading the Russian Invasion

Download PDF Time of writing: Thursday 24, February 2022 Introduction On Thursday, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine, spurring talks that an armed conflict might be about to start in eastern Europe. In this article, we pitch a directional global macro trade based on the currently unfolding scenarios, after Read more…

Conditioned order in Japan: short financials if no more stimulus is added by BOJ on Tuesday night

INTRODUCTION During last months in Japan, extreme monetary policies – also known as Abenomics – implemented by the duo Abe-Kuroda to fight deflation and give a kick to the stagnant economy, have caused a huge reaction all over the markets: the Yen has been slashed, Nikkei index has been skyrocketing Read more…